… , and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer … forecasting tournaments
testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social …

… , and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer … forecasting tournaments
testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social …

… ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains
commonly studied in the social … First, we evaluated whether social scientists’ forecasts in …

… Systematic efforts to qualify expert insights about the … to assess the accuracy of experts’
judgment of societal change (cf… a formal forecasting tournament among social scientists being run …

… Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of … , social scientists fall short in
forecasting societal changes in the … social scientists who want to make more accurate predictions, …

… scientists to make more accurate predictions about individual and societal change compared
to most other scientific … social scientists to provide formal guidance in academic journals …

… nature of social science is beginning to reverse this traditional bias against prediction; however…
However, it does not follow that predictive accuracy is necessarily at odds with insight into …

… Yet neither forecasting, nor social science analysis in general, need … We can think of many
cases in which they clearly do not choose the societal … insights into the challenge of political-…

… The ability to successfully forecast impending societal unrest, … It would also enhance the
ability of social scientists to … likely provides the most accurate insight into societal behavior, and …

… forecasting, and new challenges with respect to accuracy, … efforts to make effective use of
forecasts for societal benefit. … integration of social science knowledge into weather forecast and …