[PDF][PDF] Interest Rate Sensitivities of the Nasdaq and Dow Jones

JJ Arias - Research Paper, 2004 - researchgate.net
Research Paper, 2004researchgate.net
Conventional wisdom implies that the Nasdaq is more sensitive to interest rates than the
Dow is due to the presence of larger firms in the Dow. However, the recent view of an
old/new economy dichotomy implies that the Nasdaq is less sensitive to interest rates. To
address these mutually exclusive implications, this study estimates the sensitivities of the
Nasdaq composite index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to changes in the federal
funds rate. The paper uses seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) analysis for the sample …
Abstract
Conventional wisdom implies that the Nasdaq is more sensitive to interest rates than the Dow is due to the presence of larger firms in the Dow. However, the recent view of an old/new economy dichotomy implies that the Nasdaq is less sensitive to interest rates. To address these mutually exclusive implications, this study estimates the sensitivities of the Nasdaq composite index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to changes in the federal funds rate. The paper uses seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) analysis for the sample period covering January 1990 through May 2000. Both stock indices are equally sensitive for the entire 1990s as well as for the latter half of the 90s. The Nasdaq is more sensitive in the first half of the decade, possibly indicating the emergence of an old/new economy dichotomy in the mid-90s. However, the recent view that the Nasdaq is relatively immune to interest rate changes appears overstated.
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