International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations

A Beltratti, C Morana - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2010 - Elsevier
A Beltratti, C Morana
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2010Elsevier
The paper investigates linkages between general macroeconomic conditions and the
housing market for the G-7 area. Among the key results of the paper, we find that the US are
an important source of global fluctuations not only for real activity, nominal variables and
stock prices, but also for real housing prices. Secondly, albeit distinct driving forces for real
activity and financial factors can be pointed out, sizeable global interactions are also
evident. In particular, global supply-side shocks are an important determinant of G-7 house …
The paper investigates linkages between general macroeconomic conditions and the housing market for the G-7 area. Among the key results of the paper, we find that the US are an important source of global fluctuations not only for real activity, nominal variables and stock prices, but also for real housing prices. Secondly, albeit distinct driving forces for real activity and financial factors can be pointed out, sizeable global interactions are also evident. In particular, global supply-side shocks are an important determinant of G-7 house prices fluctuations. The linkage between real housing prices and macroeconomic developments is however bidirectional, with investment showing in general a stronger reaction than consumption and output to housing price shocks. Implications for the real effects of the sub-prime crisis are also explored.
Elsevier
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