in 1936–1937. To assess its evolution during the late Twentieth and Twenty-first centuries
and determine potential implications for surge likelihood, we run a simplified glacier model
over the periods 1980–2015 (hindcasting) and 2015–2100 (forecasting). The model is
forced by daily temperature and precipitation fields, with downscaled reanalysis data used
for the hindcasting. A constant climate scenario and an RCP 8.5 scenario based on the …