We consider a two-period model of elections in which voters have private information about
their policy preferences. A first-period vote can have two types of consequences: it may be
pivotal in the first election and it provides a signal that affects candidates' positions in the
second election. Pivot events are exceedingly unlikely, but when they occur the effect of a
single vote is enormous. In contrast, vote totals always have some signaling effect, but the
effect of a single vote is small. We investigate which effect–pivot or signaling–drives …