We evaluated risk of extinction for a red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population in the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge and Hitchiti Experimental Forest (PNWR-HEF), Georgia. Using data from this population for 1983-88, we calculated demographic parameters using 2 ways of correcting for newly banded and unbanded birds. These 2 parameter sets should encompass the possible range of true survival rates. Using program RAMAS/stage, we implemented a stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix model with habitat saturation and used it to simulate population dynamics and investigate sensitivity of model parameters. For the parameter set based on estimates that include newly banded, but not unbanded, birds, the model predicts a median time to extinction of 58 years, and a 0.87 probability of extinction over 100 years. For the parameter set based on estimates that include newly banded and unbanded birds, analysis shows that the population is growing and faces no risk of extinction. We cannot determine which parameter set is more accurate, and therefore recommend management that minimizes the risk of extinction under continued uncertainty about population status. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in juvenile survival have the greatest effect on the population trajectory. To decrease risk of extinction for this population, management efforts should be directed at decreasing juvenile mortality.