Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most
studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions
will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate
demand models are suitable to forecast demand in relatively stable markets, but show
limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for new products it is
crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market …

Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most
studies for newtechnologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions
will reflect shares in the SP dataand not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate
demand models are suitable to forecast demand inrelatively stable markets, but show
limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for newproducts it is
crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market …