Prediction of modified Mercalli intensity from PGA, PGV, moment magnitude, and epicentral distance using several nonlinear statistical algorithms

DA Alvarez, JE Hurtado, DA Bedoya-Ruíz - Journal of seismology, 2012 - Springer
Journal of seismology, 2012Springer
Despite technological advances in seismic instrumentation, the assessment of the intensity
of an earthquake using an observational scale as given, for example, by the modified
Mercalli intensity scale is highly useful for practical purposes. In order to link the qualitative
numbers extracted from the acceleration record of an earthquake and other instrumental
data such as peak ground velocity, epicentral distance, and moment magnitude on the one
hand and the modified Mercalli intensity scale on the other, simple statistical regression has …
Abstract
Despite technological advances in seismic instrumentation, the assessment of the intensity of an earthquake using an observational scale as given, for example, by the modified Mercalli intensity scale is highly useful for practical purposes. In order to link the qualitative numbers extracted from the acceleration record of an earthquake and other instrumental data such as peak ground velocity, epicentral distance, and moment magnitude on the one hand and the modified Mercalli intensity scale on the other, simple statistical regression has been generally employed. In this paper, we will employ three methods of nonlinear regression, namely support vector regression, multilayer perceptrons, and genetic programming in order to find a functional dependence between the instrumental records and the modified Mercalli intensity scale. The proposed methods predict the intensity of an earthquake while dealing with nonlinearity and the noise inherent to the data. The nonlinear regressions with good estimation results have been performed using the “Did You Feel It?” database of the US Geological Survey and the database of the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data for the California region.
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