[HTML][HTML] Regime-dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting

TC McCandless, GS Young, SE Haupt… - Journal of Applied …, 2016 - journals.ametsoc.org
TC McCandless, GS Young, SE Haupt, LM Hinkelman
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016journals.ametsoc.org
This paper describes the development and testing of a cloud-regime-dependent short-range
solar irradiance forecasting system for predictions of 15-min-average clearness index
(global horizontal irradiance). This regime-dependent artificial neural network (RD-ANN)
system classifies cloud regimes with a k-means algorithm on the basis of a combination of
surface weather observations, irradiance observations, and GOES-East satellite data. The
ANNs are then trained on each cloud regime to predict the clearness index. This RD-ANN …
Abstract
This paper describes the development and testing of a cloud-regime-dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting system for predictions of 15-min-average clearness index (global horizontal irradiance). This regime-dependent artificial neural network (RD-ANN) system classifies cloud regimes with a k-means algorithm on the basis of a combination of surface weather observations, irradiance observations, and GOES-East satellite data. The ANNs are then trained on each cloud regime to predict the clearness index. This RD-ANN system improves over the mean absolute error of the baseline clearness-index persistence predictions by 1.0%, 21.0%, 26.4%, and 27.4% at the 15-, 60-, 120-, and 180-min forecast lead times, respectively. In addition, a version of this method configured to predict the irradiance variability predicts irradiance variability more accurately than does a smart persistence technique.
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