Retrospective uncertainties for deep models using vine copulas

N Tagasovska, F Ozdemir… - … Conference on Artificial …, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2023proceedings.mlr.press
Despite the major progress of deep models as learning machines, uncertainty estimation
remains a major challenge. Existing solutions rely on modified loss functions or architectural
changes. We propose to compensate for the lack of built-in uncertainty estimates by
supplementing any network, retrospectively, with a subsequent vine copula model, in an
overall compound we call Vine-Copula Neural Network (VCNN). Through synthetic and real-
data experiments, we show that VCNNs could be task (regression/classification) and …
Abstract
Despite the major progress of deep models as learning machines, uncertainty estimation remains a major challenge. Existing solutions rely on modified loss functions or architectural changes. We propose to compensate for the lack of built-in uncertainty estimates by supplementing any network, retrospectively, with a subsequent vine copula model, in an overall compound we call Vine-Copula Neural Network (VCNN). Through synthetic and real-data experiments, we show that VCNNs could be task (regression/classification) and architecture (recurrent, fully connected) agnostic while providing reliable and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates, comparable to state-of-the-art built-in uncertainty solutions.
proceedings.mlr.press
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