Self-exciting point process modelling of crimes on linear networks

N D'Angelo, D Payares, G Adelfio… - Statistical …, 2024 - journals.sagepub.com
Statistical Modelling, 2024journals.sagepub.com
Although there are recent developments for the analysis of first and second-order
characteristics of point processes on networks, there are very few attempts in introducing
models for network data. Motivated by the analysis of crime data in Bucaramanga
(Colombia), we propose a spatiotemporal Hawkes point process model adapted to events
living on linear networks. We first consider a non-parametric modelling strategy, for which
we follow a non-parametric estimation of both the background and the triggering …
Although there are recent developments for the analysis of first and second-order characteristics of point processes on networks, there are very few attempts in introducing models for network data. Motivated by the analysis of crime data in Bucaramanga (Colombia), we propose a spatiotemporal Hawkes point process model adapted to events living on linear networks. We first consider a non-parametric modelling strategy, for which we follow a non-parametric estimation of both the background and the triggering components. Then we consider a semi-parametric version, including a parametric estimation of the background based on covariates, and a non-parametric one of the triggering effects. Our model can be easily adapted to multi-type processes. Our network model outperforms a planar version, improving the fitting of the self-exciting point process model.
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