Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK

…, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team… - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
… Here, we report on short-term forecasts of the Covid-19 epidemic produced by six groups in
the UK… these forecasts was set up through a short-term forecasting subgroup of the Scientific …

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number

MJ Keeling, L Dyson… - … Methods in Medical …, 2022 - journals.sagepub.com
COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and
ongoing scientific guidance in response to … These data contain confidential information, with …

Comparative assessment of methods for short-term forecasts of COVID-19 hospital admissions in England at the local level

S Meakin, S Abbott, N Bosse, J Munday, H Gruson… - BMC medicine, 2022 - Springer
… settings, both to inform situational awareness and facilitate … During the COVID-19 pandemic
in England, it is an ongoing … positive for COVID-19 following a polymerase chain reaction (…

Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions

K Nikolopoulos, S Punia, A Schäfers… - European journal of …, 2021 - Elsevier
… To that end, using data from the USA, India, UK, Germany, … response to the pandemic are
being taken, the approach to … growth in five countries and modeled the dependent short-term

COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model

F Petropoulos, S Makridakis, N Stylianou - … journal of forecasting, 2022 - Elsevier
… of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, … and predicting the short-term
behavior of COVID-19. Our model … our forecasts to a small set of countries that responded

Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave

P Birrell, J Blake, E Van Leeuwen… - … of the Royal …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Pandemic Influenza Sub-Group on Modelling (SPI-M) [7]. This work has informed the various
phases of the UK response… As the pandemic progresses, short-term and longer-term model …

Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed

JPA Ioannidis, S Cripps, MA Tanner - International journal of forecasting, 2022 - Elsevier
… Even for short-term forecasting when the epidemic wave … the response to crisis Most hospitals
saw no major COVID-19 wave … “If I were to make an informed estimate based on the limited …

An adaptive research approach to COVID-19 forecasting for regional health systems in England

L Betcheva, F Erhun, A Feylessoufi… - … Journal on Applied …, 2024 - pubsonline.informs.org
… valuable to our COVID-19 response planning, supporting … we learned during the COVID-19
pandemic modeling and … background for the short-term forecasting method used in this …

The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19

AL Bertozzi, E Franco, G Mohler… - Proceedings of the …, 2020 - National Acad Sciences
… the United Kingdom did not swiftly take action against the … In both nations, governments
responded by implementing more … to have succeeded in the short term will have little impact on …

Modeling and forecasting the COVID19 pandemic time‐series data

JA Doornik, JL Castle, DF Hendry - Social science quarterly, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
… and policy responses creates pandemic observations that are … The United Kingdom counts
a COVID-19 death as someone … Our aim was to provide short-term forecasts of the numbers …