[HTML][HTML] Stay home save lives: A machine learning approach to causal inference to evaluate impact of social distancing in the us
Objectives: Although there are a few studies that provide estimations of the impact of COVID-
19 pandemic, there is a need for an actual policy evaluation of the already implemented
social distancing measures. This paper presents an evaluation of the social distancing
measures implemented by the US states. Methods: This research uses a machine learning
based Generalized Synthetic Control Method. In doing so, it considers the US states that
adopted early social distancing approaches as the treatment group and the states that …
19 pandemic, there is a need for an actual policy evaluation of the already implemented
social distancing measures. This paper presents an evaluation of the social distancing
measures implemented by the US states. Methods: This research uses a machine learning
based Generalized Synthetic Control Method. In doing so, it considers the US states that
adopted early social distancing approaches as the treatment group and the states that …
Objectives:
Although there are a few studies that provide estimations of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, there is a need for an actual policy evaluation of the already implemented social distancing measures. This paper presents an evaluation of the social distancing measures implemented by the US states.
Methods:
This research uses a machine learning based Generalized Synthetic Control Method. In doing so, it considers the US states that adopted early social distancing approaches as the treatment group and the states that adopted social distancing much later as the control group and it has controlled for state and time fixed effects, to cancel out the possible selection bias and endogeneity.
Results:
The results show that the first round of social distancing in the US is associated with lower COVID-19 infection growth rate (by-167%) when compared to the no policy intervention counterfactual.
Conclusions:
The findings from this policy evaluation establishes a robust scientific basis of the efficacy of social distancing measures on slowing down the contagion of a pandemic.
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