Synchronization of Crude Oil Prices Cycle and Business Cycle for the Central Eastern European Economies

A Geise, M Piłatowska - 2014 - repozytorium.umk.pl
2014repozytorium.umk.pl
The main purpose of the paper is to study the degree to which the Brent crude oil price cycle
is correlated and synchronized with business cycle in a set of chosen Central Eastern
European (CEE) economies. To indentify the oil price cycle and business cycles for chosen
individual countries the Markov-switching autoregressive model (MS-AR) is used. The
identification of the smoothed probabilities of being in regime 1 and regime 2 enables the
calculation of correlation coefficients between those probabilities and the concordance …
The main purpose of the paper is to study the degree to which the Brent crude oil price cycle is correlated and synchronized with business cycle in a set of chosen Central Eastern European (CEE) economies. To indentify the oil price cycle and business cycles for chosen individual countries the Markov-switching autoregressive model (MS-AR) is used. The identification of the smoothed probabilities of being in regime 1 and regime 2 enables the calculation of correlation coefficients between those probabilities and the concordance index to evaluate the synchronization of oil price cycle and business cycles for the CEE economies.
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