Although it is well documented that estrogen hormone is positively associated with bone mineral density and lower risk of fracture, there are limited studies on the association between duration of endogenous estrogen exposure (EEE) and fracture, especially by longitudinal design.

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between EEE with fracture incidence by longitudinal design in a community-based study.

A total of 5269 eligible postmenarcheal women, including 2411 premenopausal and 2858 menopausal women, were recruited from among the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Cox proportional hazards regression model with adjustment of potential confounders was performed to assess the relationship between duration of EEE and incident of any hospitalized fractures.

A total of 26.7% (1409/5269) women were menopausal at the baseline, and 2858 of the remaining participants reached menopause at the end of follow-up. Results of the unadjusted model demonstrated that the EEE z-score was negatively associated with fracture incidence [unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.96] in postmenarchal women, indicating that per 1-SD increase of EEE z-score, the hazard of fracture reduced by 19%. Results remained statistically unchanged after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.58-0.86).

The findings of this cohort study suggest that a longer duration of EEE has a protective effect on fracture incidence; a point that needs to be considered in fracture risk assessment.