The role of US monetary policy in global banking crises

CB Durdu, A Martin, I Zer - 2019 - papers.ssrn.com
CB Durdu, A Martin, I Zer
2019papers.ssrn.com
We examine the role of US monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-
country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. US monetary
policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct
linkages to the US, either in the form of trade links or significant share of USD-denominated
liabilities. Conversely, if a country is integrated globally, rather than having a direct
exposure, the effect is ambiguous. One possible channel we identify is capital flows: If the …
Abstract
We examine the role of US monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. US monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the US, either in the form of trade links or significant share of USD-denominated liabilities. Conversely, if a country is integrated globally, rather than having a direct exposure, the effect is ambiguous. One possible channel we identify is capital flows: If the correction in capital flows is disorderly (eg, sudden stops), the probability of banking crises increases. These findings suggest that the effect of US monetary policy in global banking crises is not uniform and largely dependent on the nature of linkages with the US
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