This paper proposes a two-phase framework to predict the impact dispersion area of a
reentering space object. A semi-analytic approach is developed that predicts the dispersion
area by combining an analytic impact point sensitivity model with corrections to account for
aerodynamic drag. The first phase of the framework (preparation phase) generates a
database storing the coefficients used in the correction model; this applies the least-squares
method to the results of numerical experiments on the space object reentry for various initial …