Capsule Ring records can be used to predict spatial changes in habitat suitability in
wintering grounds of migratory birds as shown by a case study with the Meadow Pipit
(Anthus pratensis). Aims To forecast the winter distribution of the Meadow Pipit in the Iberian
Peninsula and the Maghreb (1 700 000 km2) by combining ring records and fields surveys.
Methods We processed winter ring records with Maxent, a popular machine-learning
technique used to predict the occurrence probability of species. We then tested whether the …

… of the Meadow Pipit in the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb (1 700 000 km2 ) by
combining ring records and fields surveys. Methods: We processed winter ring records with
Maxent, a popular machine-learning technique used to predict the occurrence probability of
species. We then tested whether the occurrence probabilities predicted by the model were
significantly positively related to the actual abundance of the Pipit in Spain and Morocco.
Results: Occurrence probabilities provided by Maxent explained 6% of Pipit abundance …