Validation of “prodromal” criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up

AR Yung, B Nelson, C Stanford, MB Simmons… - Schizophrenia …, 2008 - Elsevier
AR Yung, B Nelson, C Stanford, MB Simmons, EM Cosgrave, E Killackey, LJ Phillips
Schizophrenia research, 2008Elsevier
BACKGROUND: Identification of individuals “prodromal” for schizophrenia and other
psychotic disorders relies on criteria that predict onset within a brief period. Previous trials
and biological research have been predicated on the view that certain “ultra high risk”(UHR)
criteria detect “the prodrome”, but there is a need to test the validity of these criteria. AIM: To
assess the predictive validity of the UHR criteria in a clinical population. METHOD: The
presence of UHR criteria was determined in 292 help-seeking individuals. At 2 year follow …
BACKGROUND
Identification of individuals “prodromal” for schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders relies on criteria that predict onset within a brief period. Previous trials and biological research have been predicated on the view that certain “ultra high risk” (UHR) criteria detect “the prodrome”, but there is a need to test the validity of these criteria.
AIM
To assess the predictive validity of the UHR criteria in a clinical population.
METHOD
The presence of UHR criteria was determined in 292 help-seeking individuals. At 2 year follow-up the number of new cases of psychotic disorder was assessed.
RESULTS
The criteria significantly predicted onset of psychotic disorder within 2 years. The transition rate of 16% was much lower than in initial cohorts (over 40%).
CONCLUSIONS
The predictive validity of UHR criteria depends on the sample to which they are applied. Although young help-seekers meeting these criteria are at greater risk of psychotic disorder than those who do not meet them, caution is needed in their management, since a high transition rate can no longer be assumed.
Elsevier
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