A major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations is the existence of significant
uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction. In particular,
weather uncertainty has been acknowledged as one of the most (if not the most) relevant
ones. In the present paper we present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning at the
pre-tactical level. The main goal is to plan trajectories that are efficient, yet predictable. State-
of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are used as input data for the wind …

… Why use ensemble forecasting? … Why use ensemble forecasting? … A330 from NY to
Lisbon Flying at M=.82 and FL380 20th of January, 2016 200 hPa level forecast from the
PEARP ensemble (35 members, from Météo France) …