… -to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes in transmission rate
substantially … of the potential course of CoVID-19 in England and Wales in the absence of control …

… model of disease transmission in England and Wales to capture the spread of COVID-19 [10]. …
timing of the peak of the epidemic in England and Wales and spatial features of spread. …

… However, the number of confirmed cases in the four nations (England, Scotland, Wales
and Northern Ireland) of the UK began to increase rapidly from 28 February 2020. …

… insight into transmission of COVID-19 and have provided the first evidence that the
restrictions adopted by the UK Government have led to a decrease in transmission of COVID-19. …

… can expand this out to the entire student population of Wales. Specifically, it is estimated that
there are 99,900 households in Wales that contain at least one student in Higher Education. …

… during essential activities and financial and practical support to enable low-paid workers to
stay at home during periods of intense transmission may reduce COVID-related inequalities. …

… of local neighbourhood exposure relevant to COVID-19 transmission.7 8 We assume local
… local cities, a highly relevant context for COVID-19 transmission.21 22 Finally, each TTWA is …

… Here, using time series of COVID-19 cases within local authorities in England, we explore
… ) influence COVID-19 incidence. Our approach is to first construct a baseline transmission …

… COVID-19 cases and deaths in the 337 lower tier local authority regions in England and
Wales … with regional age demographics in England and Wales. Regional positions relative to …

… Neither our model nor the IHME model is a disease transmission model, and this represents
a limitation. Although in predicting mortality (as opposed to cases), SEIR compartmental …