Background When a new infectious disease emerges, appropriate case definitions are
important for clinical diagnosis and for public health surveillance. Tracking case numbers …

The purpose of the present paper is to present simple estimation and prediction methods for
basic quantities in an emerging epidemic like the ongoing covid-10 pandemic. The simple …

Background: Forecasting the behavior of epidemic outbreaks is vital in public health. This
makes it possible to anticipate the planning and organization of the health system, as well as …

This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model a few weeks after the World
Health Organization declared COVID‐19 a pandemic (based on the little data available at …

Mathematical modelling performs a vital part in estimating and controlling the recent
outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this epidemic, most countries impose …

Background With the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a sudden case
increase in late February 2020 led to deep concern globally. Italy, South Korea, Iran, France …

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of preparedness of many healthcare
systems against pandemic situations. In response, many population-level computational …

Background As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, national-level surveillance platforms
with real-time individual person-level data are required to monitor and predict the …

Mathematical models are critical tools to characterize COVID-19 dynamics and take action
accordingly. We identified 4 major challenges associated with the current modeling …

Comment 1444 www. thelancet. com Vol 399 April 16, 2022 outcomes, including age,
seasonality, population density, income, and health risks to identify contextual factors …