Geopolitical risk and excess stock returns predictability: New evidence from a century of data

F Ma, F Lu, Y Tao - Finance Research Letters, 2022 - Elsevier
This study applies a new series of geopolitical risk historical indices developed by Caldara
and Iacoviello (2022) to predict stock returns. Empirical results show that the geopolitical …

Historical geopolitical risk and the behaviour of stock returns in advanced economies

AA Salisu, L Lasisi, JP Tchankam - The European Journal of …, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
In this study, we investigate the impact of global geopolitical risk (GPR) of different forms on
the economies of advanced countries (G7 and Switzerland). We construct a predictive …

Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH–MIDAS approach

AA Salisu, AE Ogbonna, L Lasisi, A Olaniran - The North American Journal …, 2022 - Elsevier
In this study, we examine the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and stock market
volatility in emerging economies. Our motivation for this study is premised on the need to …

The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns

J Yang, C Yang - Economic Analysis and Policy, 2021 - Elsevier
To timely track and evaluate the impact of dynamic geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks, we use
mixed-frequency GPR to explain and forecast stock market returns. Our empirical findings …

When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns

A Zaremba, N Cakici, E Demir, H Long - Journal of Financial Stability, 2022 - Elsevier
Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role in asset pricing in global
emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The …

Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective

Y Zhang, J He, M He, S Li - Finance Research Letters, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and stock market
volatility from a global perspective. We use dynamic panel data including 32 countries and …

Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression

Z Umar, A Bossman, SY Choi, T Teplova - Finance Research Letters, 2022 - Elsevier
We investigate the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) generated by the Russian-Ukrainian
conflict on European and Russian bonds, equity, and global commodity markets. We employ …

Geopolitical risks and investor sentiment: Causality and TVP-VAR analysis

Z He - The North American journal of economics and finance, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper aims to explore the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR) and investor
sentiment in the US stock market based on Granger causality test and time-varying …

Geopolitical Risk and Stock Market Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from GARCH‐MIDAS Model

M Yang, Q Zhang, A Yi, P Peng - Discrete Dynamics in Nature …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Previous studies have found that geopolitical risk (GPR) caused by geopolitical events such
as terrorist attacks can affect the movements of asset prices. However, the studies on …

Geopolitical risks, uncertainty, and stock market performance

MEK Agoraki, GP Kouretas… - Economic and Political …, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
This paper analyses the impact of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on
stock returns. It uses an unbalanced panel dataset of monthly observations for 22 countries …