Logic tree branch weights and probabilities: Summing up to one is not enough

F Scherbaum, NM Kuehn - Earthquake Spectra, 2011 - journals.sagepub.com
Logic trees have become the most popular tool for the quantification of epistemic
uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In a logic-tree framework …

Challenges of building logic trees for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

JJ Bommer - Earthquake Spectra, 2012 - journals.sagepub.com
In the current practice of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), logic trees are widely
used to represent and capture epistemic uncertainty in each element of the models for …

Logic trees, sensitivity analyses, and data reduction in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

N Rabinowitz, DM Steinberg… - Earthquake …, 1998 - journals.sagepub.com
This article explains the essential duality between logic tree analysis and sensitivity analysis
in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The results of a logic tree analysis can be used …

On the nature of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

R Musson - Earthquake Spectra, 2012 - journals.sagepub.com
An objection sometimes made against treating the weights of logic tree branches as
probabilities relates to the Kolmogorov axioms, but these are only an obstacle if one …

Accounting for epistemic uncertainty in PSHA: Logic tree and ensemble modeling

W Marzocchi, M Taroni, J Selva - Bulletin of the …, 2015 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Any trustworthy probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA) has to account for the intrinsic
variability of the system (aleatory variability) and the limited knowledge of the system itself …

The use and misuse of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

JJ Bommer, F Scherbaum - Earthquake Spectra, 2008 - journals.sagepub.com
Logic trees have become a standard feature of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses
(PSHA) for determining design ground motions. A logic tree's purpose is to capture and …

An interactive tool for the elicitation of subjective probabilities in probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis

AK Runge, F Scherbaum, A Curtis… - Bulletin of the …, 2013 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
In probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis, epistemic uncertainties are commonly treated
within a logic‐tree framework in which the branch weights express the degree of belief of an …

Composite ground-motion models and logic trees: methodology, sensitivities, and uncertainties

F Scherbaum, JJ Bommer… - Bulletin of the …, 2005 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Logic trees have become a popular tool in seismic hazard studies. Commonly, the models
corresponding to the end branches of the complete logic tree in a probabalistic seismic …

Comparison of the ranges of uncertainty captured in different seismic‐hazard studies

J Douglas, T Ulrich, D Bertil… - Seismological …, 2014 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
The inclusion of epistemic uncertainties, generally via logic trees (Kulkarni et al., 1984),
within probabilistic seismichazard assessments (PSHAs) is becoming standard for all types …

Characterizing the epistemic uncertainty in the USGS 2014 national seismic hazard mapping project (NSHMP)

Y Lee, W Graf, Z Hu - Bulletin of the Seismological …, 2018 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
To account for the epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis,
multiple scientifically justifiable and defensible models are usually considered with a logic …