Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

B Flyvbjerg, MK Skamris Holm, SL Buhl - Transport Reviews, 2006 - Taylor & Francis
This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

How (in) accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects?: The case of transportation

B Flyvbjerg, MK Skamris Holm… - Journal of the American …, 2005 - Taylor & Francis
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in
transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 …

Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy

P Parthasarathi, D Levinson - Transport Policy, 2010 - Elsevier
This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-
completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in …

Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects

MK Skamris, B Flyvbjerg - Transport policy, 1997 - Elsevier
Little research has been carried out on before-and-after studies of traffic and costs in large
transport infrastructure projects. The few studies made all show a tendency for forecasts of …

Do planners get it right? The accuracy of travel demand forecasting in Norway

M Welde, J Odeck - European Journal of Transport and …, 2011 - journals.open.tudelft.nl
This paper deals with the accuracy of travel demand forecasts among Norwegian road
projects. We use data collected from tolled roads and toll free roads. The results reveal that …

Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling

B Flyvbjerg - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005 - Elsevier
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring
inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting:(1) using the forecast made at the time of making …

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

G De Jong, A Daly, M Pieters, S Miller, R Plasmeijer… - Transportation, 2007 - Springer
This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central
traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic …

Traffic forecasting risk study update 2005: Through ramp-up and beyond

R Bain, L Polakovic - … OF ETC 2005, STRASBOURG, FRANCE 18-20 …, 2005 - trid.trb.org
Over the past three years the credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has published a series
of reports reflecting on the performance of traffic forecasts. The original study concentrated …

Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

R Bain - Transportation, 2009 - Springer
Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to
gauge the bankability of candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the …

[图书][B] The econometrics of major transport infrastructures

E Quinet, R Vickerman - 1996 - books.google.com
Major transport infrastructures are increasingly in the news as both the engineering and
financing possibilities come together. However, these projects have also demonstrated the …