Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining actions to adapt to the
impacts of climate change and in formulating targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse …

The development of ensemble-based 'probabilistic'climate forecasts is often seen as a
promising avenue for climate scientists. Ensemble-based methods allow scientists to …

There is a scientific consensus regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This
has led to substantial efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and thereby …

Many studies of future climate change take an ensemble modeling approach in which
simulations of future conditions are produced with multiple climate models (or model …

A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a
set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by …

Simulation-based weather and climate prediction now involves the use of methods that
reflect a deep concern with uncertainty. These methods, known as ensemble prediction …

Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common
set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various …

Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on
observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from …

Over the last 20 years, climate models have been developed to an impressive level of
complexity. They are core tools in the study of the interactions of many climatic processes …

Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently
probabilistic, due to uncertainties in the initial conditions of forecasts, the representation of …