Over the last 20 years, climate models have been developed to an impressive level of
complexity. They are core tools in the study of the interactions of many climatic processes …

There is a scientific consensus regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This
has led to substantial efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and thereby …

Predictions of future climate are based on elaborate numerical computer models. As
computational capacity increases and better observations become available, one would …

A discussion is presented of the different sources of uncertainty in the production of climate
change projections at the global to the regional scale. In particular the following uncertainty …

This paper presents and analyses a statistical framework for combining projections of future
climate from different climate simulators. The framework recognizes explicitly that all …

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to
prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This …

Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining actions to adapt to the
impacts of climate change and in formulating targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse …

Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common
set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various …

We review various interpretations of the phrase “model error”, choosing to focus here on
how to quantify and minimise the cumulative effect of model “imperfections” that either have …

There is no more challenging problem in computational science than that of estimating, as
accurately as science and technology allows, the future evolution of Earth's climate; nor …