A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives

G Gaeta - arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.08720, 2020 - arxiv.org
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the
ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives …

Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model

D Caccavo - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
The COVID-19 disease is rapidly spreading in whole globe, affecting millions of people and
pushing governments to take drastic measures to contain the outbreaks. The understanding …

Predicting the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria using the SIR model

MS Boudrioua, A Boudrioua - Medrxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
The aim of this study is to predict the daily infected cases with Coronavirus (COVID-19) in
Algeria. We apply the SIR model on data from 25 February 2020 to 24 April 2020 for the …

A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19

GA Muñoz-Fernández, JM Seoane… - Chaos, Solitons & …, 2021 - Elsevier
It is well-known that the classical SIR model is unable to make accurate predictions on the
course of illnesses such as COVID-19. In this paper, we show that the official data released …

A SIDARTHE model of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy

G Giordano, F Blanchini, R Bruno, P Colaneri… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2020 - arxiv.org
In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe,
potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province …

[PDF][PDF] Quantifying undetected COVID-19 cases and effects of containment measures in Italy: Predicting phase 2 dynamics

MG Pedersen, M Meneghini - preprint, 2020 - researchgate.net
The COVID-19 disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-nCoV2 is spreading rapidly across
the globe since its outbreak in China. Italy was the first seriously affected Western country …

A time-varying SIRD model for the COVID-19 contagion in Italy

GC Calafiore, C Novara, C Possieri - Annual reviews in control, 2020 - Elsevier
The purpose of this work is to give a contribution to the understanding of the COVID-19
contagion in Italy. To this end, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered …

Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on a parameter-varying stochastic SIR model

JP Hespanha, R Chinchilla, RR Costa, MK Erdal… - Annual reviews in …, 2021 - Elsevier
We address the prediction of the number of new cases and deaths for the coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) over a future horizon from historical data (forecasting). We use a …

Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework

M Cadoni, G Gaeta - Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2020 - Elsevier
The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its
timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type …

What can we estimate from fatality and infectious case data using the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model? A case study of Covid-19 pandemic

S Ahmetolan, AH Bilge, A Demirci… - Frontiers in …, 2020 - frontiersin.org
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the
end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world …