A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing

L Danon, E Brooks-Pollock, M Bailey, M Keeling - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
Background An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named CoVID-19, was first reported in
China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 …

A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality

L Danon, E Brooks-Pollock… - … Transactions of the …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of
9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to …

Initial simulation of SARS-CoV2 spread and intervention effects in the continental US

S Pei, J Shaman - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
Here we use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread
and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the continental United States. We calibrate the model …

Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, associated deaths and impact of key risk factors in England

B Sartorius, AB Lawson, RL Pullan - Scientific reports, 2021 - nature.com
COVID-19 caseloads in England have passed through a first peak, and at the time of this
analysis appeared to be gradually increasing, potentially signalling the emergence of a …

The spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infection in England between January and June 2020

R Elson, TM Davies, IR Lake, R Vivancos… - Epidemiology & …, 2021 - cambridge.org
The spatio-temporal dynamics of an outbreak provide important insights to help direct public
health resources intended to control transmission. They also provide a focus for detailed …

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

MJ Keeling, EM Hill, EE Gorsich… - PLoS computational …, 2021 - journals.plos.org
Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical
interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs …

Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission

B Rader, SV Scarpino, A Nande, AL Hill, BD Dalziel… - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-
pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread–. During the initial …

The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models

ML Childs, MP Kain, MJ Harris… - … of the Royal …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Mathematical models of epidemics are important tools for predicting epidemic dynamics and
evaluating interventions. Yet, because early models are built on limited information, it is …

A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19

A Arenas, W Cota, J Gómez-Gardenes, S Gómez… - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, that provokes the COVID-19
disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China on 31 December 2019. As of 20 March …

A stochastic model for COVID-19 spread and the effects of Alert Level 4 in Aotearoa New Zealand

MJ Plank, RN Binny, SC Hendy, A Lustig, A James… - MedRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
While case numbers remain low, population-wide control methods combined with efficient
tracing, testing, and case isolation, offer the opportunity for New Zealand to contain and …