Adaptive conformal regression with jackknife+ rescaled scores

N Deutschmann, M Rigotti, MR Martinez - arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.19901, 2023 - arxiv.org
Conformal regression provides prediction intervals with global coverage guarantees, but
often fails to capture local error distributions, leading to non-homogeneous coverage. We …

Heteroskedastic conformal regression

N Dewolf, B De Baets, W Waegeman - arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.08313, 2023 - arxiv.org
Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a
distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees …

Conformal Thresholded Intervals for Efficient Regression

R Luo, Z Zhou - arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.14495, 2024 - arxiv.org
This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression
method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage …

Adjusting Regression Models for Conditional Uncertainty Calibration

R Gao, M Yin, J McInerney, N Kallus - arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.17466, 2024 - arxiv.org
Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage
guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which …

A comparison of some conformal quantile regression methods

M Sesia, EJ Candès - Stat, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We compare two recent methods that combine conformal inference with quantile regression
to produce locally adaptive and marginally valid prediction intervals under sample …

Conformalized quantile regression

Y Romano, E Patterson… - Advances in neural …, 2019 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid
coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal …

Stable conformal prediction sets

E Ndiaye - International Conference on Machine Learning, 2022 - proceedings.mlr.press
When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1),\ldots,(x_n, y_n) $, Conformal
Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $ y_ {n+ 1} …

Localized conformal prediction: A generalized inference framework for conformal prediction

L Guan - Biometrika, 2023 - academic.oup.com
We propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes
the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction …

Selective conformal inference with false coverage-statement rate control

Y Bao, Y Huo, H Ren, C Zou - Biometrika, 2024 - academic.oup.com
Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals. We consider here
the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is, prediction intervals are …

Training-Conditional Coverage Bounds under Covariate Shift

M Pournaderi, Y Xiang - arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.16594, 2024 - arxiv.org
Training-conditional coverage guarantees in conformal prediction concern the concentration
of the error distribution, conditional on the training data, below some nominal level. The …