Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently
probabilistic, due to uncertainties in the initial conditions of forecasts, the representation of …

Many studies of future climate change take an ensemble modeling approach in which
simulations of future conditions are produced with multiple climate models (or model …

Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for
future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational …

Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining actions to adapt to the
impacts of climate change and in formulating targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse …

Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common
set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various …

A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a
set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by …

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts
research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent …

Future climate change projections are constructed from simulated numerical output from a
small set of global climate models—samples of opportunity known as multi‐model …

Simulation-based weather and climate prediction now involves the use of methods that
reflect a deep concern with uncertainty. These methods, known as ensemble prediction …

Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications |
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