National security decision-making is informed by intelligence assessments, which in turn
depend on sound information evaluation. We critically examine information evaluation …

A number of researchers have advocated the use of explicit numeric probabilities in the
drafting and presentation of intelligence assessments. A trial of this methodology by a …

This thesis aims at improving the definition and evaluation of deceptive strategies that can
manipulate information. Using conceptual, formal and experimental resources, I analyze …

Abstract This dissertation, The Impact of the Information Revolution on Policymakers' Use Of
Intelligence Analysis examines whether senior, civilian policymakers in the information age …

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) Report on the US Intelligence
Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, dated July 7, 2004, provides a …

Each of the criteria most frequently used to evaluate the quality of intelligence analysis has
limitations and problems. When accuracy and surprise are employed as absolute standards …

Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence
analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the …

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a
more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK …

The value of finished intelligence analysis is not measured solely by its accuracy, but rather
by the value it has for decisionmakers. This value, however, can change depending on the …

In a series of reports and meetings in Spring 2011, intelligence analysts and officials
debated the chances that Osama bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Estimates …