In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is explicit about prior assumptions,
for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change.
The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including
studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using the Last Glacial
Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP). Most of these studies were
based on ordinary least squares (OLS) fits between a variable of the climate state, such as …