A cause of rupture segmentation and synchronization in the Nankai trough revealed by seismic imaging and numerical simulation

S Kodaira, T Hori, A Ito, S Miura, G Fujie… - Journal of …, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
S Kodaira, T Hori, A Ito, S Miura, G Fujie, JO Park, T Baba, H Sakaguchi, Y Kaneda
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2006Wiley Online Library
A giant earthquake occasionally occurs in a subduction zone owing to a simultaneous
rupture in adjacent segments which have been previously ruptured by large earthquakes.
However, it is still unknown if a giant earthquake coincidentally occurs, or if there is a causal
factor to control its generation. In this study we show a cause and a growth process of a giant
earthquake which may occur along southwestern Japan, on the basis of seismic images
obtained from wide‐angle seismic data and a numerical simulation incorporating the …
A giant earthquake occasionally occurs in a subduction zone owing to a simultaneous rupture in adjacent segments which have been previously ruptured by large earthquakes. However, it is still unknown if a giant earthquake coincidentally occurs, or if there is a causal factor to control its generation. In this study we show a cause and a growth process of a giant earthquake which may occur along southwestern Japan, on the basis of seismic images obtained from wide‐angle seismic data and a numerical simulation incorporating the structural images. The wide‐angle seismic data were acquired along three trough parallel profiles crossing the rupture segmentation boundary between the 1944 Tonankai (moment magnitude Mw = 8.1) and the 1946 Nankai (Mw = 8.4) earthquakes. The seismic imaging detected a high seismic velocity body forming a strongly coupled patch at the segmentation boundary. The numerical simulation explained the historic rupture patterns and shows the occurrence of a giant earthquake along the entire Nankai trough, a distance of over 600 km long (Mw = 8.7). The growth process revealed from the simulated slip history in and around the strongly coupled patch is: (1) Prior to the giant earthquake, a small slow event (or earthquake) occurs near the segmentation boundary; (2) this accelerates a very slow slip (slower than the plate convergent rate), at the strong patch, which reduces a degree of coupling; and (3) then a rupture easily propagates through the strong patch when the next earthquake is nucleated near the segmentation boundary, consequently growing into a giant earthquake.
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