[PDF][PDF] ARIMA modelling for forecasting of rice production: A case study of Pakistan

K Khan, G Khan, SA Shaikh, AS Lodhi… - … University Journal of …, 2015 - researchgate.net
Lasbela University Journal of Sciences and Technology, 2015researchgate.net
This paper is based on empirical research which forecasts the rice production in Pakistan
wherein we have applied the Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology for forecasting. For this
study, we used time series data from 1993 to 2015. The diagnostic tests showed that ARIMA
set (2, 1, 1) is more suitable combination for forecasting. This study clearly indicates that
forecasting is very useful for policy makers to anticipate future needs of grain and export.
Moreover, this would also prove helpful in shaping the national policy of economic growth …
Abstract
This paper is based on empirical research which forecasts the rice production in Pakistan wherein we have applied the Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology for forecasting. For this study, we used time series data from 1993 to 2015. The diagnostic tests showed that ARIMA set (2, 1, 1) is more suitable combination for forecasting. This study clearly indicates that forecasting is very useful for policy makers to anticipate future needs of grain and export. Moreover, this would also prove helpful in shaping the national policy of economic growth and self-sufficiency in food grain.
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