Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza

RF Grais, J Hugh Ellis, GE Glass - European journal of epidemiology, 2003 - Springer
RF Grais, J Hugh Ellis, GE Glass
European journal of epidemiology, 2003Springer
The objective of this research is to explore what would happen if the Hong Kong influenza
pandemic strain of 1968–1969 returned in 2000. We report the results of a series of
simulations of an SEIR epidemic model coupled with air transportation data for 52 global
cities. Preliminary results suggest that if the 1968–1969 pandemic strain returned, it would
spread concurrently to cities in both the northern and southern hemispheres thereby
exhibiting less of the characteristic seasonal swing. In addition, after recognition of …
Abstract
The objective of this research is to explore what would happen if the Hong Kong influenza pandemic strain of 1968–1969 returned in 2000. We report the results of a series of simulations of an SEIR epidemic model coupled with air transportation data for 52 global cities. Preliminary results suggest that if the 1968–1969 pandemic strain returned, it would spread concurrently to cities in both the northern and southern hemispheres thereby exhibiting less of the characteristic seasonal swing. In addition, after recognition of pandemic onset in the focal city, the time lag for public health intervention is very short. These findings highlight the importance of coordinated global surveillance and pandemic planning.
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