COVID-19 vaccine impact in Israel and a way out of the pandemic

E Leshem, A Wilder-Smith - The Lancet, 2021 - thelancet.com
E Leshem, A Wilder-Smith
The Lancet, 2021thelancet.com
the case detection system. In this trial, a combination of passive and active case detection
was used, which renders comparison with the RTS, S phase 3 trial difficult. An element of
active case detection is often used in phase 2b trials such as this one, but it is recommended
that purely passive case detection is used in pivotal phase 3 trials, as this method has
greater relevance for extrapolation to public health. The analysis method for the primary
endpoint estimates efficacy in terms of time to first episode of clinical malaria. Although …
the case detection system. In this trial, a combination of passive and active case detection was used, which renders comparison with the RTS, S phase 3 trial difficult. An element of active case detection is often used in phase 2b trials such as this one, but it is recommended that purely passive case detection is used in pivotal phase 3 trials, as this method has greater relevance for extrapolation to public health. The analysis method for the primary endpoint estimates efficacy in terms of time to first episode of clinical malaria. Although common practice, this method only presents information on the first episodes of clinical malaria, despite the fact that second and subsequent episodes are common in the same individuals in moderate to high transmission settings. Therefore, the more relevant measure for public health is reduction in all episodes of clinical malaria. To the authors’ credit, this policy-relevant measure is provided as an additional analysis, and efficacy does not appear to be substantially different to the primary endpoint. While the reported efficacy in this trial is higher than many of the published RTS, S trials, there is no direct comparison between vaccinations timed to occur with the beginning of each malaria season, and case detection methods differ. The question of superiority therefore remains unanswered. However, the great progress with R21/MM is beneficial for malaria vaccination research. Advantages might include the lower antigen dose and the lack of requirement for AS01. In due course large-scale, well collected safety data will be essential to build the risk–benefit assessment; the experience with SARS-CoV-2 has provided another reminder that important adverse events might only be detected once millions of immunisations have been recorded. Ongoing efforts to strengthen pharmacovigilance in Africa might soon have another priority use case to monitor. RTS, S/AS01 benefits from 7 years of efficacy follow-up; long-term follow-up of R21-vaccinated children in phase 2b and 3 trials will be needed for policy determinations in the years ahead. It is good news to see another potential malaria vaccine showing great promise, and a critical next step is generation of high-quality phase 3 data from representative epidemiological settings with target populations, vaccination schedule, booster dose timing, study design, and relevant outcome measures agreed with African regulators, policy makers, and WHO.
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