Historical climate data are underutilized in agricultural decision making. We illustrate how
long-term climate data and observations from farmers' fields can be combined to quantify
risks from seasonal weather and climate variability for nitrogen fertilizer management for
corn (Zea mays L.). We developed a probability model for estimating the risk of deficient corn
nitrogen status using within-field late-season plant measurements, field information about
previous crop, nitrogen rate, form and application timing in combination with rainfall data …