Coupled stochastic weather generation using spatial and generalized linear models

A Verdin, B Rajagopalan, W Kleiber… - … Research and Risk …, 2015 - Springer
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2015Springer
We introduce a stochastic weather generator for the variables of minimum temperature,
maximum temperature and precipitation occurrence. Temperature variables are modeled in
vector autoregressive framework, conditional on precipitation occurrence. Precipitation
occurrence arises via a probit model, and both temperature and occurrence are spatially
correlated using spatial Gaussian processes. Additionally, local climate is included by
spatially varying model coefficients, allowing spatially evolving relationships between …
Abstract
We introduce a stochastic weather generator for the variables of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation occurrence. Temperature variables are modeled in vector autoregressive framework, conditional on precipitation occurrence. Precipitation occurrence arises via a probit model, and both temperature and occurrence are spatially correlated using spatial Gaussian processes. Additionally, local climate is included by spatially varying model coefficients, allowing spatially evolving relationships between variables. The method is illustrated on a network of stations in the Pampas region of Argentina where nonstationary relationships and historical spatial correlation challenge existing approaches.
Springer
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