Dynamic relations between macroeconomic variables and the Japanese stock market: an application of a vector error correction model

TK Mukherjee, A Naka - Journal of financial Research, 1995 - Wiley Online Library
Journal of financial Research, 1995Wiley Online Library
By employing the vector error correction model (VECM) in a system of seven equations, we
find that the Japanese stock market is cointegrated with a group of six macroeconomic
variables. The signs of the long‐term elasticity coefficients of the macroeconomic variables
on stock prices generally support the hypothesized equilibrium relations. Our findings are
robust to different combinations of macroeconomic variables in six‐dimension systems and
two subperiods. Also, the VECM consistently outperforms the vector autoregressive model in …
Abstract
By employing the vector error correction model (VECM) in a system of seven equations, we find that the Japanese stock market is cointegrated with a group of six macroeconomic variables. The signs of the long‐term elasticity coefficients of the macroeconomic variables on stock prices generally support the hypothesized equilibrium relations. Our findings are robust to different combinations of macroeconomic variables in six‐dimension systems and two subperiods. Also, the VECM consistently outperforms the vector autoregressive model in forecasting ability.
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