Early warning signs of imminent thermoacoustic oscillations through critical slowing down

Q An, AM Steinberg, S Jella… - … of Engineering for …, 2019 - asmedigitalcollection.asme.org
Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power, 2019asmedigitalcollection.asme.org
Critical slowing down (CSD) is a phenomenon that is common to many complicated
dynamical systems as they approach critical transitions/bifurcations. We demonstrate that
pressure signals measured during the onset of thermoacoustic instabilities in a gas turbine
engine test exhibit evidence of CSD well before the oscillation amplitude increases. CSD
was detected through both the variance and the lag-1 auto-regressive coefficient in a rolling
window of the pressure signal. Increasing trends in both metrics were quantified using …
Critical slowing down (CSD) is a phenomenon that is common to many complicated dynamical systems as they approach critical transitions/bifurcations. We demonstrate that pressure signals measured during the onset of thermoacoustic instabilities in a gas turbine engine test exhibit evidence of CSD well before the oscillation amplitude increases. CSD was detected through both the variance and the lag-1 auto-regressive coefficient in a rolling window of the pressure signal. Increasing trends in both metrics were quantified using Kendall's τ, and the robustness and statistical significance of the observed increases were confirmed. Changes in the CSD metrics could be detected several seconds prior to changes in the oscillation amplitude. Hence, real-time calculation of these metrics holds promise as early warning signals of impending thermoacoustic instabilities.
The American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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