Exchange rate volatility and import trade flow evidence from India-US at industry level

M Gupta, S Varshney - International Journal of Asian Business and …, 2021 - igi-global.com
International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management (IJABIM), 2021igi-global.com
The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the
India-US trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019.
We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly
frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional
heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing
approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and …
Abstract
The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-US trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.
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