Feasibility Analysis of Aviation CO2 Emission Goals Under Uncertainty

M Hassan, H Pfaender, DN Mavris - 17th AIAA Aviation Technology …, 2017 - arc.aiaa.org
17th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, 2017arc.aiaa.org
The expected growth in demand for air travel implies a significant rise in number of flight
operations. The latter would undoubtedly cause an increase in fuel burn, jet emissions, and
airport noise levels; environmental effects that regulatory bodies have been striving to limit
drastically. Vehicle technologies, operational improvements and sustainable biofuels are
among the solutions considered to achieve aggressive environmental targets set by the
International Air Transport Association (IATA). The main research objective of this study is to …
The expected growth in demand for air travel implies a significant rise in number of flight operations. The latter would undoubtedly cause an increase in fuel burn, jet emissions, and airport noise levels; environmental effects that regulatory bodies have been striving to limit drastically. Vehicle technologies, operational improvements and sustainable biofuels are among the solutions considered to achieve aggressive environmental targets set by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The main research objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of those environment goals. Specifically, this paper builds on previous works to provide a capability that accounts for the various enablers and assesses system performance at reasonable accuracy. In addition, a scenario-based approach is implemented to account for multiple sources of uncertainty. For 40 different scenarios considered, it was shown that for high demand growth, the IATA goals are not feasible. However, with medium and low demand growth, coupled with high technology introduction rates and faster retirement of old aircraft, it was shown that the goals are feasible.
AIAA Aerospace Research Center
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