Forecasting multivariate time series with the theta method

DD Thomakos, K Nikolopoulos - Journal of Forecasting, 2015 - Wiley Online Library
Journal of Forecasting, 2015Wiley Online Library
In this study building on earlier work on the properties and performance of the univariate
Theta method for a unit root data‐generating process we:(a) derive new theoretical
formulations for the application of the method on multivariate time series;(b) investigate the
conditions for which the multivariate Theta method is expected to forecast better than the
univariate one;(c) evaluate through simulations the bivariate form of the method; and (d)
evaluate this latter model in real macroeconomic and financial time series. The study …
Abstract
In this study building on earlier work on the properties and performance of the univariate Theta method for a unit root data‐generating process we: (a) derive new theoretical formulations for the application of the method on multivariate time series; (b) investigate the conditions for which the multivariate Theta method is expected to forecast better than the univariate one; (c) evaluate through simulations the bivariate form of the method; and (d) evaluate this latter model in real macroeconomic and financial time series. The study provides sufficient empirical evidence to illustrate the suitability of the method for vector forecasting; furthermore it provides the motivation for further investigation of the multivariate Theta method for higher dimensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Wiley Online Library
以上显示的是最相近的搜索结果。 查看全部搜索结果