Inertia risk: Improving economic models of catastrophes

AS Crépin, E Nævdal - The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2020Wiley Online Library
We model endogenous catastrophic risk in a new way. We call it “inertia risk”, which
accounts for delays between physical variables and the hazard rate–a characteristic often
observed in reality. The added realism significantly affects optimal policies relative to the
standard model of catastrophic risk. The probability of a catastrophe occurring at some point
in time can span the entire interval [0, 1], and is not 0 or 1 as is typical in standard models.
Inertia risk can also generate path dependences. We illustrate the implications for policy in a …
Abstract
We model endogenous catastrophic risk in a new way. We call it “inertia risk”, which accounts for delays between physical variables and the hazard rate – a characteristic often observed in reality. The added realism significantly affects optimal policies relative to the standard model of catastrophic risk. The probability of a catastrophe occurring at some point in time can span the entire interval [0,1], and is not 0 or 1 as is typical in standard models. Inertia risk can also generate path dependences. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change.
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