Lagged compound dry and wet spells in Northwest North America under 1.5° C–4° C global warming levels

R Rezvani, W Na, MR Najafi - Atmospheric Research, 2023 - Elsevier
Atmospheric Research, 2023Elsevier
The increasing variability and rapid transitions between hydroclimatic extremes and their
compounding economic and environmental effects can cause severe consequences.
Understanding the changing characteristics of such transitions, including their
spatiotemporal frequency and magnitude is critical to developing effective mitigation and
adaptation strategies. In this study, lagged compound dry and wet spells are investigated in
Northwest North America (NWNA) based on the Standardised Precipitation Index and …
Abstract
The increasing variability and rapid transitions between hydroclimatic extremes and their compounding economic and environmental effects can cause severe consequences. Understanding the changing characteristics of such transitions, including their spatiotemporal frequency and magnitude is critical to developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this study, lagged compound dry and wet spells are investigated in Northwest North America (NWNA) based on the Standardised Precipitation Index and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for multiple accumulation periods (1, 3, and 6 months). The indices are estimated based on six downscaled Global Climate Models that participated in the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, in addition to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model simulations. We characterize changing behaviour of the lagged compound dry and wet spells under 1.5 °C–4 °C global warming levels. Projections show overall increases in the frequency of wet and dry swings and decreases in the corresponding transition times in NWNA under climate change. In addition, the magnitude, intensity, and duration of wet and dry components of such lagged compound events are projected to increase. With some differences, both indices identify the entire Columbia and southern Fraser basins as hotspots for frequent compound event occurrences. The study identifies increasing hotspots across the domain affected by abrupt transitions under climate change and asserts the necessity of integrating mitigation measures targeting such lagged compound events into disaster risk reduction strategies.
Elsevier
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