Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation
We analyze how stylized Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and specifically the widely‐
used Dynamic Integrated Climate‐Economy model (DICE), represent the cost of emissions
abatement. Many assume temporal independence—that abatement costs in one period are
not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions of dynamic realism in
emitting systems:(i) inertia,(ii) induced innovation, and (iii) path dependence. We review key
evidence from the last quarter century on each of these three components. Studies of stock …
used Dynamic Integrated Climate‐Economy model (DICE), represent the cost of emissions
abatement. Many assume temporal independence—that abatement costs in one period are
not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions of dynamic realism in
emitting systems:(i) inertia,(ii) induced innovation, and (iii) path dependence. We review key
evidence from the last quarter century on each of these three components. Studies of stock …
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