Moisture sources associated with heavy rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa

RS Rapolaki, RC Blamey, JC Hermes, CJC Reason - Climate Dynamics, 2020 - Springer
Climate Dynamics, 2020Springer
Moisture sources and pathways over the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) in southern Africa were
identified using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT)
model applied to NCEP II (2.5°× 2.5°) reanalysis data for 1981–2016. The 10-day air parcel
backward trajectories were produced for the extended wet season (October–April) as well as
the early and late summer. Analysis of a 36-year climatology of air parcel trajectories
indicated seven moisture source regions for the LRB; namely, local continental, tropical …
Abstract
Moisture sources and pathways over the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) in southern Africa were identified using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model applied to NCEP II (2.5° × 2.5°) reanalysis data for 1981–2016. The 10-day air parcel backward trajectories were produced for the extended wet season (October–April) as well as the early and late summer. Analysis of a 36-year climatology of air parcel trajectories indicated seven moisture source regions for the LRB; namely, local continental, tropical southeast Atlantic Ocean, midlatitude South Atlantic Ocean, tropical northwest Indian Ocean, tropical southwest Indian Ocean, subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, and the Agulhas Current. The results have shown that important differences in moisture source regions and pathways exist between early (October–December) and late (January–April) summers, with the tropical northwestern Indian Ocean and the northern Agulhas Current sources more prominent during JFMA than OND. On interannual time scales, there are notable differences in moisture source regions between anomalously wet and dry summers, with the South Indian Ocean moisture contribution and transport over the LRB smaller during dry summers than wet summers. Changes in specific humidity for trajectory linked to heavy daily rainfall events (defined from CHIRPS data) showed that subtropical South Indian Ocean source is more extensive for the heavy rainfall than for the moderate case. Generally, moisture source regions and transport pathways for LRB tend to be influenced by both the regional summer season circulation and the synoptic setting.
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