of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an
operational definition of chaos. We introduce a statistical framework for testing the chaotic
hypothesis based on the estimated Lyapunov exponents and a consistent variance
estimator. A simulation study to evaluate small sample performance is reported. We also
apply our procedures to daily stock return data. In most cases, the hypothesis of chaos in the …