On the Madden–Julian oscillation–Atlantic hurricane relationship

PJ Klotzbach - Journal of Climate, 2010 - journals.ametsoc.org
Journal of Climate, 2010journals.ametsoc.org
The large-scale equatorial circulation known as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has
been shown to impact tropical cyclone activity in several basins around the globe. In this
paper, the author utilizes an MJO index created by Wheeler and Hendon to examine its
impacts on tropical genesis and intensification in the Atlantic. Large differences in frequency
and intensity of tropical cyclone activity are seen, both in the tropical Atlantic as well as in the
northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico depending on the MJO phase. Coherent changes …
Abstract
The large-scale equatorial circulation known as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to impact tropical cyclone activity in several basins around the globe. In this paper, the author utilizes an MJO index created by Wheeler and Hendon to examine its impacts on tropical genesis and intensification in the Atlantic. Large differences in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone activity are seen, both in the tropical Atlantic as well as in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico depending on the MJO phase. Coherent changes in upper- and lower-level winds and relative humidity are likely responsible for these differences. Since the MJO shows potential predictability out to about two weeks, the relationships discussed in this paper may be useful for short-term predictions of the probability of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic as a complement to the already available longer-term seasonal predictions.
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